Although the government has not described it that way, there are now indisputable indications that India has entered the third wave of the Kovid-19 pandemic. The increase in the number of cases started is not likely to decrease or change in the next few days.
But it is too early to say anything about the scope or quality of this leap. The country does not have to follow the same paths seen in Europe, the United States or some other country, similar to the first two waves it has witnessed so far. South Africa is following a very different path, so it seems to be Germany now. In both countries, cases seem to be gaining momentum, which is not over yet, and part of the puzzle may be related to the inconsistent reporting of data over the Christmas holidays.
It is not surprising to see a sharp increase in cases in major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Kolkata and Chennai. This is not only due to their large and concentrated population, but also due to the fact that they receive the maximum number of incoming foreign tourists. The omiciron variant, which caused the current surge, will first begin to circulate in this population before moving to the interior. These are also places where better and faster infrastructure is tested.
According to a recent study conducted by a team of researchers led by the Chennai-based Institute of Sitabhra Sinha, the reproduction number or R, which is an indicator of how fast a disease spreads in a population, has passed 1 in all these megacities. Mathematics. The R-value of 1 indicates that each infected person is transmitting the infection to an average person, an important threshold for cases that begin to rise rapidly. According to Sinha’s analysis, R-values are now more than two in Delhi and Mumbai, indicating that one person in these two cities transmits on average to more than two people. It is predicted that cases will rise very fast in both these cities.
One of the main reasons for the unprecedented surge in Europe and the United States is that large gatherings are common during the annual festive season. Although many governments have announced some restrictions to curb leaps and bounds, they are reluctant to destroy Christmas or New Year celebrations or gatherings. There is no such requirement in India now and if people follow the Kovid-appropriate behavior responsibly, the country will be able to cope with this wave with minimal economic collapse.
